Methods

(Source: EFP foresight guide)

As a Foresight exercise may make use of different (sets of) methods at different stages, finding the appropriate sequence of methods is one of the most delicate design steps. Indeed, it is an evolutionary process that needs continuous adaptation and in depth discussion with the sponsors, the team and other stakeholders.

In this respect it might be useful to distinguish the different functions that need to be performed in different phases of your exercise:

  • Diagnosis: Understanding where we are
  • Prognosis: Foresighting what could happen
  • Prescription: Deciding what should be done

These functions might relate to specific phases of the process or they might come up at more than one point in time during the exercise.

The graphic shows a possible grouping of Foresight methods. The shape inside the circle shows how often each method has been used within a set of exercises collected and analysed by the EFMN (European Foresight monitoring Network)

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2 pensamientos en “Methods

  1. It is interesting how Other methods have a greater participation than Delphi, Modelation, technology roadmap, whom are more familiar, so it could be better to describe those other methods rather than those on 0%.

    • The percentages are based on the exercises analysed by EFMN. Technology roadmapping, delphi and modeling, as other methods in the picture are also widely used. Technology roadmapping is especially popular within companies.

      The picture shows different methods and how they differ in their knowledge source, i.e. are they based on Interaction, expertise, evidence or creativity.

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